November 19, 2025

Copper: The Quiet Metal That Could Bottleneck the AI & Energy Transition Boom

by Ewen Emmerson

in Insights Research

Most investors know copper as a workhorse material – in pipes, wiring and “the bits behind the walls”. It rarely gets the same attention as lithium, batteries or “Big Tech”.

But when we look at the themes likely to define the next decade – AI data centres, power grid investment, defence spending, electric vehicles and broader electrification – copper keeps reappearing at the centre of the story.

Recently, our investment team spent time with an excellent research piece from Global X, “Copper: At the Intersection of Megatrends”. It brought together many of the structural forces we’ve been discussing in our own investment thesis: AI infrastructure, energy transition, and rearmament. That work helped crystallise our thinking and prompted us to set out, in our own words, how we see copper and why it matters for long-term portfolios.

From old-economy metal to strategic enabler

For decades, copper demand has been dominated by construction, conventional vehicles and waves of infrastructure spending in China – areas that tend to rise and fall with the global business cycle. That’s why copper and copper miners have traditionally been lumped into the “cyclicals” bucket.

What’s changing is who is driving the marginal tonne of demand:

• AI data centres & digital infrastructure – hyperscale campuses full of servers and cooling systems, all of which need robust power connections and substations.
• Power grids and high-voltage equipment – grid reinforcement, interconnectors and new lines to link up renewables and meet growing electricity consumption.
• Defence and rearmament – communications, radar, vehicles and naval systems are all copper-intensive.
• Electric vehicles & charging networks – EVs typically require more copper per vehicle than internal combustion cars, and then again in charging infrastructure and grid upgrades.
• Building & industrial electrification – from heat pumps to more efficient motors and factory automation.

Crucially, much of this investment is planned years in advance by utilities, governments and large technology companies. That makes an increasing slice of copper demand less about short-term GDP surprises and more about multi-year infrastructure and technology roadmaps.

The supply side: slow to respond

If demand is becoming more structural, the natural question is whether supply can keep pace.

In the short term, the refined copper market can still swing between modest surplus and tightness. But looking out into the 2030s, the industry’s own forecasts suggest a more challenging backdrop:

• Currently operating mines plus those already announced or under construction cover only a substantial majority – not all – of expected primary copper needs by the mid-2030s. On some estimates, that leaves a meaningful gap that has to be filled by new discoveries, project expansions and higher recycling rates.
• Lead times from discovery through permitting, financing, construction and first production have stretched, often well over a decade. That makes copper supply slow and uncertain to respond just when demand drivers are becoming more predictable.
• After the last commodity downturn, many miners reined in capital spending and became more disciplined. More recently we’ve seen large diversified miners tilt their portfolios further towards copper via acquisitions rather than a rush of new greenfield projects.

Put simply, the world is asking for more copper at the same time as the system is becoming more cautious and slower to deliver it.

Where copper fits in our broader themes

Within Brighton Capital Management’s investment thesis, several long-term themes stand out:

• AI and the data-driven economy
• Energy transition and electrification
• Rising defence and geopolitical risk
• The continuing importance of real assets

Copper sits at the intersection of all four:

• Every extra megawatt that needs to reach an AI campus runs through copper-heavy equipment, transformers and cabling.
• Every new link between offshore wind, solar parks and end-users depends on grids and substations that are materially copper-intensive.
• EV adoption and charging networks add to copper usage in both vehicles and infrastructure.
• Modern defence systems rely on sophisticated electronics and communications, with copper as a core ingredient.

If there is a bottleneck between what policymakers and technology companies want to build and what is physically achievable, materials like copper will be part of that story.

What this might mean for investors

None of this guarantees a smooth path for copper prices or mining shares. Copper will always be volatile and sensitive to global growth worries, changes in Chinese demand and shifts in market sentiment.

However, in our view:

1. The demand mix is evolving in a more durable direction
   A greater share of demand is now linked to long-term investment programmes and policy decisions, rather than purely cyclical end-markets. That doesn’t remove volatility, but it does change the character of the market.
2. Quality and discipline matter on the supply side
   Established, well-run mining assets with sensible balance sheets can be very different propositions from leveraged producers chasing volume growth. In a world of tighter supply, the quality of the underlying resources and capital allocation decisions become even more important.
3. Copper exposure should sit within a wider real-asset framework
   We see copper not as a standalone speculation, but as part of a broader exposure to real assets and equities that can benefit from structural trends in AI, infrastructure and the energy transition, while still aiming to manage risk across a whole portfolio.
4. Volatility can be a source of opportunity – with the right process
   Short-term swings around growth scares or policy headlines will remain. For long-term investors, what matters is having a disciplined framework for how much risk to take, where, and on what time horizon.

How we think about copper within BCM portfolios

As discretionary wealth managers, we’re not in the business of forecasting next quarter’s copper price. Instead, we ask questions like:

• Does your current portfolio meaningfully reflect the world’s shift towards AI infrastructure, cleaner energy and higher defence spending – or is it largely anchored in yesterday’s winners?
• Is any exposure you have to these trends deliberate and risk-managed, or just incidental through a broad index?
• How much of your capital is exposed to the physical enablers of these shifts – like copper – versus the more visible end-products and brands?

In practice, within our models we express these themes through:

• Global equities and real-asset exposures that benefit from AI infrastructure, grid investment and electrification.
• Selective exposure to miners and related businesses where we believe the combination of valuation, asset quality and balance sheet strength is attractive.
• A diversified, multi-asset framework that recognises uncertainty and aims to balance growth potential with resilience.

The Global X work on copper and megatrends aligns closely with our own analysis and has been a useful external reference point. Our implementation, however, is tailored to our mandates, risk controls and the specific needs of our clients.

Is your portfolio prepared for a world constrained by copper?

Copper is unlikely to dominate the headlines in the way AI or cryptocurrencies do, but it may quietly exert a much bigger influence on the real economy – and on investment outcomes – than many portfolios currently assume.

We believe it is one of several key materials that deserve a place in long-term portfolio thinking, especially for investors who want to participate in the AI and energy-transition themes in a grounded, risk-aware way.

If you’d like to understand:

• How themes like AI, electrification and defence show up in your existing holdings,
• Whether you have any meaningful – and appropriately sized – exposure to underlying enablers such as copper, and
• How a professionally managed, globally diversified portfolio might be positioned for the decade ahead,

we’d be delighted to discuss this in the context of your own circumstances.

👉 If you’re a private investor, trustee or family considering professional investment management, please get in touch to arrange an initial conversation with the Brighton Capital Management team.

This article is for information only and does not constitute personal advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, fund or sector. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. If you are unsure about the suitability of any investment, you should seek advice that takes your personal circumstances into account.