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August 21, 2018

Pegler’s market report – 21.08.18: Turkish lira under pressure again

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in Insights Press Releases

As published in the Brighton Argus (21.08.18) Business section under the title Pegler’s Market Report:

Turkish lira under pressure again

The Turkish lira was under pressure again last week. Investors remained generally nervous despite a pledge by Turkey’s central bank to provide liquidity, an offer from Qatar to provide $15bn in loans and reassuring words from the finance minister.

The Turkish currency has lost almost 40% against the dollar this year alone, hit by a diplomatic row with the US, investor concerns about the country’s financial policies and its foreign-currency debts. The independence of the Turkish central bank and its finance minister have also been called into question. Pressure is mounting on Turkey’s leadership to now take more drastic action to curb its soaring inflation, but it has so far been reluctant to raise interest rates. Spain, France and Italy were thought to be the most exposed eurozone countries, however some analysts believe that the UK, Germany and the US have lent the most to Turkey.

One new report showed UK consumer spending down by 0.9pc in July compared to a year earlier, despite the hot weather and world cup related boost to sales. The data from the survey suggests the uplift in retail sales seen in the second quarter has not extended into the third quarter; a worrying sign given that the Bank of England has just raised interest rates which will further squeeze household incomes.

Aside from short-term weather impacts, there’s no escaping the fact that retail is changing – with fewer people visiting physical stores and less purchases being made on the high street. With costs generally going up year on year, it’s no surprise that we are seeing many retailers reduce their store portfolios. Many industry commentators believe we need to reinvent British high streets, which is why some are recommending a freeze in business rates in the Chancellor’s next Budget.

There was no better news for the UK property market, which still appears to be flagging. Figures from the Office of National Statistics showed average property prices growing at their slowest rate for five years. Prices were up by an average of 3pc in the year to June, dragged down by house prices in London which fell by 0.7pc. All other areas showed gains, led by West Midlands which saw prices rise by 5.8pc.

It was pretty quiet on the corporate front, however GlaxoSmithKline’s HIV division reported positive results for its new injectable HIV treatment, which could free patients from taking pills three times a day.

Admiral Group pushed up profits in the first half as its sold more insurance products and added customers, particularly in the UK. Admiral’s pre-tax profit rose 9pc to £211m in the six months ended June. Turnover was £1.7bn, 14.5pc higher than in the same period in 2017. The good numbers were underpinned by strong results in the company’s core UK motor business.

This week the minutes for the Federal Reserve’s August meeting will be closely read for insights on why the Open Market Committee decided to keep US interest rates on hold.

By David Pegler, Brighton Capital Management