May 1, 2026

Inflationary Now, Deflationary Later [Part 2]

by Ewen Emmerson

in General News Insights Research

Inflationary Now, Deflationary Later

A BCM Investment Briefing

The defining feature of this decade is not a single inflation level. It is inflation volatility.

In a two-part briefing, Inflationary Now, Deflationary Later, we set out the structural argument behind that view, and what it means for how investors should be positioning today.

Part One, The Age of Scarcity, examines the inflationary forces shaping the present. An energy system being rebuilt at unprecedented scale; a defence reindustrialisation drawing on the same pool of materials and skills; an AI infrastructure buildout adding new and competing demand; a food and water system under growing strain. These are not cyclical pressures. They are the result of multiple generational programmes happening at the same time, drawing on the same finite pools of capital, labour, materials, and processing capacity.

Part Two, The Forces That Bend the Other Way, sets out the deflationary case that will eventually follow. The new energy capacity now coming online, the cost compression that AI deployment is beginning to deliver, and the demographic and technological forces that will reshape services pricing. We argue that the transition between the two phases will be neither clean nor quick, and that the practical answer for investors is not to predict the turn but to build portfolios that can function through both phases.

The full briefing examines the evidence base, identifies the indicators we are watching for a shift in the balance, and sets out how we are positioning portfolios accordingly.

To request the full briefing, please contact us.